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R / 001 · Climate & healthExploring

Climate change & pandemic risk

How might a warming planet change where diseases emerge—and could we make the early signals easier to understand?

01 / The question

How does climate change affect the conditions for emerging infectious diseases, and what could help us understand the risk of future pandemics?

02 / Working hypothesis

Could better context help?

Bringing climate, habitat, and public-health evidence into one place might make changing disease risks easier to understand. A useful first tool could help people follow the evidence, see where it is uncertain, and ask better questions. This is a working idea we have yet to test.

03 / What to investigate
01

Where could exposure change?

How might shifting habitats change contact between wildlife, livestock, and people? Which changes are supported by observations, and which are model projections?

02

Which conditions matter?

What do changes in temperature and rainfall mean for particular diseases and regions? How do land use, travel, and public-health capacity affect the picture?

03

Could we notice useful signals earlier?

Which open datasets are reliable and comparable? Could a small, source-linked evidence map help researchers or local teams interpret what is changing?

04 / A possible first experiment

Start with one place.
Follow one question.

Choose one region and one climate-sensitive disease. Map the available evidence, compare climate and disease data over time, and make the gaps visible. Start with an annotated research map, then ask domain experts whether it helps answer a real question.

Proposed · Not started
05 / What remains uncertain

Keep the uncertainty visible.

A shift in disease risk is not a forecast of the next pandemic. Animal-to-animal viral sharing, spillover into humans, and sustained spread between people are different steps. Climate is one influence among many, and the effects differ by disease and location. This brief sets out a direction to investigate; it does not report results from a Triad Labs study.

06 / Starting reading

Follow the evidence.

[1]
Climate change and health World Health Organization

WHO describes how changing climate conditions can affect infectious-disease risks, alongside wider impacts on health and health systems.

[2]
Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk Carlson et al. · Nature · 2022

A modelling study projects that mammal range shifts could create new opportunities for viral sharing between species. It does not predict a specific human pandemic.

[3]
Climate change and infectious diseases World Health Organization · Q&A

An overview of environmental pathways and the ecological, social, and economic factors that combine to shape infectious-disease risk.

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